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TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2001

SOME DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 55 KNOTS FOR NOW...BUT
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS GABRIELLE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS IN 1-2 DAYS...AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...045/15...IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN IN THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  GABRIELLE IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION 
OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS 
SLIGHTLY FASTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW APPROACHING THE SYSTEM...AND 
THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN ALSO PREDICTS SOME INCREASE IN THE 
STEERING CURRENT WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS 
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON THE 
LATEST CENTER FIXES.  THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL RUN SHOWS A TRACK 
SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO NEWFOUNDLAND THAN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE 500 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ZONAL ENOUGH 
TO KEEP THE CYCLONE CENTER EAST OF THE ISLAND.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0900Z 38.4N  61.0W    55 KTS
12HR VT     18/1800Z 40.0N  58.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     19/0600Z 42.0N  55.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     19/1800Z 44.5N  51.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     20/0600Z 47.0N  47.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     21/0600Z 50.0N  37.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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