ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2001 RECENT GOES-8 IR AND NIGHT CHANNEL IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING GABRIELLE MAY BE TAKING ITS TOLL ON THE SYSTEM. THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CENTER IS BEGINNING TO BECOME DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 55 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/17...SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND TAKE GABRIELLE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN 24 HOURS OR SO. FORECASTER AVILA/COBB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/0300Z 37.3N 61.8W 55 KTS 12HR VT 18/1200Z 38.8N 59.0W 50 KTS 24HR VT 19/0000Z 41.3N 55.4W 45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 19/1200Z 44.0N 51.5W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 20/0000Z 46.5N 47.0W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 21/0000Z 49.5N 37.5W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN