[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2001

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE A NOT VERY TROPICAL-LOOKING APPEARANCE
ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND THERE IS A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION.  THIS IS PRODUCING A COMMA-CLOUD
SIGNATURE THAT IS MORE TYPICAL OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE MAY STILL HAVE STRONG WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER...AS INDICATED BY AIRCRAFT DATA YESTERDAY.  ANOTHER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE GABRIELLE AROUND 12Z.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST CALLS FOR FELIX TO LOSE WHATEVER TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS 
IT HAS BY 24 HOURS.

THE FORWARD MOTION HAS ACCELERATED SUBSTANTIALLY AND IS NOW NEAR 20
KNOTS...REQUIRING AN ADJUSTMENT TO THE SPEED IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
GABRIELLE SHOULD REMAIN EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES.  THE
CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE LATEST AVN
GUIDANCE...WHICH IS SOUTH OF MOST OF THE OTHER MODEL TRACKS.

THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE AT ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH...TO THE 
NORTH-NORTHWEST...OF BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0900Z 34.6N  67.2W    65 KTS
12HR VT     17/1800Z 35.7N  64.2W    65 KTS
24HR VT     18/0600Z 37.5N  60.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     18/1800Z 39.5N  57.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     19/0600Z 41.5N  54.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     20/0600Z 45.0N  48.9W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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