ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2001 AIR FORCE RECON REPORTS THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM HAS BECOME ELONGATED...MORE LIKE A TROUGH. THEIR DATA ALSO INDICATED LITTLE OR NO TEMPERATURE RISE AT THE 850 MB CENTER. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT GABRIELLE IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST...AS IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER THE CYCLONE IS STILL MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...AND THEREFORE HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE AT TROPICAL RE-DEVELOPMENT. THUS GABRIELLE IS BEING KEPT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR NOW. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES DO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE OF CONVECTION NEAR THE BROAD CENTER. THE STORM IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF WESTERLIES AND THE STEERING CURRENT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AS GABRIELLE MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...AND THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST AVN GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN DOING A RATHER GOOD JOB WITH GABRIELLE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 31.1N 76.2W 50 KTS 12HR VT 16/1800Z 31.9N 74.4W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 17/0600Z 33.0N 71.5W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 17/1800Z 34.0N 68.5W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 18/0600Z 35.5N 65.5W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 19/0600Z 39.0N 59.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN