ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2001
AIR FORCE RECON REPORTS THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM HAS BECOME
ELONGATED...MORE LIKE A TROUGH. THEIR DATA ALSO INDICATED LITTLE
OR NO TEMPERATURE RISE AT THE 850 MB CENTER. THESE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THAT GABRIELLE IS ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST...AS IN THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER THE CYCLONE IS STILL MOVING OVER WARM
WATERS...AND THEREFORE HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE AT TROPICAL
RE-DEVELOPMENT. THUS GABRIELLE IS BEING KEPT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR NOW. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES DO SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE BROAD CENTER.
THE STORM IS EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF WESTERLIES AND THE
STEERING CURRENT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AS GABRIELLE MOVES FARTHER TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST. INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ESTIMATE...AND THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST AVN GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN DOING A RATHER GOOD JOB WITH
GABRIELLE.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0900Z 31.1N 76.2W 50 KTS
12HR VT 16/1800Z 31.9N 74.4W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 17/0600Z 33.0N 71.5W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 17/1800Z 34.0N 68.5W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 18/0600Z 35.5N 65.5W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 19/0600Z 39.0N 59.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
NNNN
Problems?