ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT SEP 15 2001 SHIPS DHER AND OZQP2 REPORTED 44 AND 43 KT NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER AT 18Z...SO THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45 KT. THAT BEING SAID...GABRIELLE STILL DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE VERY TROPICAL. WHILE CONVECTION IS CLOSER TO THE CENTER THAN EARLIER...THE NEAREST CONVECTION IS STILL ABOUT 75 NM FROM THE CENTER AND LOOKS LIKE IT HAS AS MUCH TO DO WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT DOES WITH GABRIELLE. SAB HAS CLASSIFIED THE SYSTEM AS EXTRATROPICAL...WHILE TAFB IS CALLING IT SUBTROPICAL. THE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL THERE IS CLEAR EVIDENCE THAT IT HAS MERGED WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE. GABRIELLE HAS ACCELERATED TO 055/13...AND ONCE AGAIN THE SHORT- TERM MOTION MAY BE EVEN FASTER. THE STORM IS NOW EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD CONTINUE A GENERAL EAST-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE. THE TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE TO THE NORTH AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL POSSIBILITIES IN REGARDS TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE FIRST...RE-INTENSIFICATION AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE BAROCLINIC ENVIRONMENT THE STORM IS NOW EMBEDDED IN. THE SECOND...RE-INTENSIFICATION AS A HYBRID CYCLONE...IS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT OF THE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION CAUSED BY INTERACTION WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE THIRD POSSIBILITY IS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOTABLE THAT NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING OF GABRIELLE AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMBINATION OF THE SECOND AND THIRD POSSIBILITIES...CALLING FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING FOLLOWED BY EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT 72 HR. GABRIELLE COULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL EARLIER IF THE CONVECTION DOES NOT PERSIST. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 30.1N 78.3W 45 KTS 12HR VT 16/0600Z 31.2N 76.4W 45 KTS 24HR VT 16/1800Z 32.6N 73.9W 45 KTS 36HR VT 17/0600Z 34.1N 71.0W 50 KTS 48HR VT 17/1800Z 36.0N 67.5W 50 KTS 72HR VT 18/1800Z 39.5N 61.0W 50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL NNNN