ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2001 GABRIELLE CERTAINLY DOES NOT HAVE THE PATTERN OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AT THIS TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE AN OCCLUDED FRONTAL LOW. IT HAS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH A NON-SYMMETRIC WIND FIELD AND IS DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...GABRIELLE HAS MAINTAINED PRESSURES LOWER THAN 999 MB DESPITE MOVING OVER LAND FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS OR MORE WITH 40-KNOT WINDS. THIS IS PERHAPS BECAUSE IT IS NO LONGER PURELY TROPICAL. GABRIELLE IS ABOUT TO MOVE BACK OVER WATER AND IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING OVER THE GULF STREAM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE...IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN SOME OVER THE WARM WATERS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BECAUSE GABRIELLE COULD ALSO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DRIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. GABRIELLE SHOULD RESUME A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION OF MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN BOTH INTENSITY OR TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THEREFORE...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE UNCHANGED. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 28.7N 80.8W 40 KTS 12HR VT 15/1800Z 29.3N 80.0W 40 KTS 24HR VT 16/0600Z 30.0N 77.5W 45 KTS 36HR VT 16/1800Z 31.5N 74.5W 50 KTS 48HR VT 17/0600Z 33.0N 71.5W 50 KTS 72HR VT 18/0600Z 36.5N 65.5W 50 KTS NNNN