ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001 THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO HELP LOCATE THE CENTER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/09. BUT IF THE WIND DOESN'T SHIFT AT ORLANDO SOON...THEN THE FORWARD MOTION COULD BE A LOT LESS...EVEN STATIONARY...OR THE CENTER COULD BE ELONGATING NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST AS IT IS SHEARED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON MOVING GABRIELLE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST UNDER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES NEAR THE US EAST COAST. BUT SOME LIKE THE AVIATION MODEL ARE RATHER SLOW WITH THE STORM NOT BEING CAUGHT UP IN THE TROUGH OR HAVING IT STRETCHED OUT FROM THE SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...FASTER THAT THE AVN AND NOGAPS BUT SLOWER THAT THE GFDL AND UKMET. THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER BUT RAIN IS STILL FALLING NEAR THE CENTER. THE STRONGEST WIND LATELY WAS 48 KNOTS SUSTAINED AT THE ST AUGUSTINE BUOY AT 22Z...ELEVATION 16.5 METERS. AT 01Z THE WIND THERE WAS 41 KNOTS. SO I AM GOING WITH 40 KNOTS FOR THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AND THIS IS ONLY OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE COAST NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE FORECASTING INTENSIFICATION WITH THE GFDL AT 103 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS. THE AVIATION MODEL AND SHIPS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSERVATIVE INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS AND THIS INTENSIFICATION...IF ANY...COULD BE FROM EXTRATROPICAL ENERGY SOURCES. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 29.3N 81.2W 40 KTS 12HR VT 15/1200Z 30.5N 80.4W 40 KTS 24HR VT 16/0000Z 31.5N 78.5W 40 KTS 36HR VT 16/1200Z 32.5N 76.0W 45 KTS 48HR VT 17/0000Z 33.5N 73.0W 50 KTS 72HR VT 18/0000Z 36.5N 67.5W 50 KTS NNNN