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TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001
 
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO HELP LOCATE THE
CENTER.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/09.  BUT IF THE WIND
DOESN'T SHIFT AT ORLANDO SOON...THEN THE FORWARD MOTION COULD BE A
LOT LESS...EVEN STATIONARY...OR THE CENTER COULD BE ELONGATING 
NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST AS IT IS SHEARED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.   ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON MOVING GABRIELLE 
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST UNDER A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN 
THE WESTERLIES NEAR THE   US EAST COAST.  BUT SOME LIKE THE AVIATION 
MODEL ARE RATHER SLOW WITH THE STORM NOT BEING CAUGHT UP IN THE 
TROUGH OR HAVING IT STRETCHED OUT FROM THE SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS...FASTER THAT THE 
AVN AND NOGAPS BUT SLOWER THAT THE GFDL AND UKMET.
 
THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER BUT RAIN IS STILL
FALLING NEAR THE CENTER.  THE STRONGEST WIND LATELY WAS 48 KNOTS
SUSTAINED AT THE ST AUGUSTINE BUOY AT 22Z...ELEVATION 16.5 METERS.
AT 01Z THE WIND THERE WAS 41 KNOTS.  SO I AM GOING WITH 40 KNOTS FOR
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AND THIS IS ONLY OVER THE WATER AND NEAR THE
COAST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE FORECASTING
INTENSIFICATION WITH THE GFDL AT 103 KNOTS AT 48 HOURS.  THE
AVIATION MODEL AND SHIPS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSERVATIVE INCREASE TO 50 KNOTS IN 48 HOURS
AND THIS INTENSIFICATION...IF ANY...COULD BE FROM EXTRATROPICAL 
ENERGY SOURCES.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 29.3N  81.2W    40 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 30.5N  80.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 31.5N  78.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 32.5N  76.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     17/0000Z 33.5N  73.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     18/0000Z 36.5N  67.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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