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TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001
 
AS USUAL IN THIS SHEARED SYSTEM...THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE 
AND IT APPEARS TO KEEP RE-FORMING TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE 
CONVECTION.  ALTHOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS NOT DROPPED 
SIGNIFICANTLY...992 OR 993 MB...THE RECON REPORTED A BAND A 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL...70 TO 75 KNOTS...NEARING THE 
WEST COAST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.  GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE 
NORTHEAST AT AN AVERAGE SPEED OF 9 KNOTS. THIS FASTER MOTION WILL 
BRING THE CENTER INLAND IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE 
STRONGEST WINDS AND RAINS ARE IN ADVANCE OF THE CENTER AND ARE 
ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. DO NOT FOCUS ON 
THE CENTER.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS FLORIDA 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO BE BACK OVER WATER IN THE ATLANTIC BETWEEN 
24 AND 36 HOURS.

IN TERMS OF CHANGES IN INTENSITY...BECAUSE THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE 
THE TYPICAL PATTERN OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 
STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER...IT COULD PRODUCE 
GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER 
WHILE CROSSING FLORIDA.  SOME STRENGTHENING MAY OCCUR WHEN IT MOVES 
BACK OVER WATER.  

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 26.1N  83.1W    60 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 27.0N  82.1W    60 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 28.2N  81.0W    50 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     15/1800Z 29.5N  80.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 30.5N  78.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     17/0600Z 33.5N  72.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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