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TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2001

AIR FORCE RECON FOUND THE CENTER TO BE LOCATED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST OF ITS PREVIOUS POSITION.  IT IS NOT YET KNOWN WHETHER
THIS THE RESULT OF A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER NEARER TO THE DEEP
CONVECTION...OR ACTUAL MOTION.  WSR-88D ANIMATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER IS MOVING GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD...SO INITIAL MOTION IS SET
TO 045/5.  THIS WOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE COAST IN A LITTLE
OVER 24 HOURS...SO WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.  IT IS
IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT A POINT...AND
BANDS OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE
CENTER.  IN FACT...THESE BANDS ARE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE WARNING
AREA.  THIS WEATHER WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST EVEN IF THE PRESUMED
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS NOT MAINTAINED.

THE STORM IS IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL 
TROUGH THAT IS SPREADING OVER THE EASTERN GULF. IN SPITE OF THE 
MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS 
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT THE COAST. 

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN THREAT FROM GABRIELLE IS 
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 25.5N  84.3W    45 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 26.1N  83.6W    50 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 27.0N  82.8W    60 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 28.0N  82.0W    50 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     15/1800Z 29.0N  81.0W    40 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     16/1800Z 31.0N  78.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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