ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2001 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS A VERY BROAD CIRCULATION WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER. CONVECTION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED WITH RESPECT TO THIS CENTER...BEING ORIENTED IN A LINEAR BAND THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HAS IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE WATER IS OF COURSE QUITE WARM AND THEREFORE STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT...GIVEN THE VERY POOR CURRENT ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM...IS MUCH LESS THAN THE GFDL...WHICH FORECASTS THE SYSTEM TO REACH ABOUT 100 KT BEFORE LANDFALL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/2...AND THE RECON POSITION IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK AND ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE MOTION IN THE SHORT TERM. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE EVOLUTION BECOMES COMPLICATED BY A SHARP MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH FORECAST BY THE AVN TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE IN THE GULF AT THAT TIME WILL BE CRUCIAL TO ITS ULTIMATE TRACK. IN THE AVN...THE CYCLONE IS IN THE NORTHERN GULF...WHERE IT INTERACTS WITH THE TROUGH AND GETS DRAGGED EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...THE TROUGH TRIGGERS A SEPARATE BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE GEORGIA-SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THE UKMET HAS A VERY SIMILAR LARGE SCALE FLOW EVOLUTION...HOWEVER...THE MODEL CYCLONE DRIFTS WESTWARD IN THE GULF DURING THE FIRST 48 H...WHERE IT IS NOT IN A POSITION TO BE PICKED UP BY THE TROUGH. THIS OPTION IS ALSO FAVORED BY THE NOGAPS AND ETA MODELS...WHICH WOULD KEEP THE SYSTEM IN THE GULF FOR SOME TIME. GIVEN THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE INITIAL POSITION...AND ESPECIALLY THE SPLIT IN THE GUIDANCE...I HAVE PULLED BACK A LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND SHOW A SLOWER RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 25.2N 85.8W 30 KTS 12HR VT 13/1200Z 25.3N 86.1W 35 KTS 24HR VT 14/0000Z 25.6N 86.5W 40 KTS 36HR VT 14/1200Z 26.2N 86.6W 50 KTS 48HR VT 15/0000Z 27.0N 86.0W 60 KTS 72HR VT 16/0000Z 28.5N 84.0W 70 KTS NNNN