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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2001

LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER 
ORGANIZED AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A 
LITTLE MORE.  BASED ON THESE DATA...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED 
UP A BIT.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE CYCLONE SOON TO GIVE A 
MORE PRECISE ESTIMATE OF BOTH INTENSITY AND LOCATION.  AN 
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST HAS 
MODIFIED THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO 
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY...AND DECREASED THE SHEAR SOMEWHAT.  ACCORDING TO 
THE LATEST AVN RUN...THIS SMALL TROUGH MOVES VERY SLOWLY AND IF THIS 
VERIFIES...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING.  
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN IN THE 
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE MORE 
AGGRESSIVE.

THE CENTER MAY BE MEANDERING...OR REFORMING WITHIN THE CONVECTION TO 
THE SOUTH.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  A MID-LATITUDE 
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE 
FORECAST PERIOD.  IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THIS TROUGH WILL BE 
ABLE TO STEER THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE 
GFDL...GFDN...AND AVN MODELS.  THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL SHOWS VERY 
LITTLE MOTION...WHEREAS THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS BEEN TAKING IT 
GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDERNEATH A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST 
GULF COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A COMPROMISE 
BETWEEN THESE DIVERSE OPTIONS. 

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/2100Z 25.5N  85.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     13/0600Z 25.5N  85.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     13/1800Z 26.2N  86.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     14/0600Z 27.2N  86.1W    45 KTS
48HR VT     14/1800Z 27.9N  85.2W    50 KTS
72HR VT     15/1800Z 29.0N  83.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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