ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2001 LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN A LITTLE MORE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP A BIT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE CYCLONE SOON TO GIVE A MORE PRECISE ESTIMATE OF BOTH INTENSITY AND LOCATION. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST HAS MODIFIED THE UPPER FLOW OVER THE SYSTEM FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY...AND DECREASED THE SHEAR SOMEWHAT. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST AVN RUN...THIS SMALL TROUGH MOVES VERY SLOWLY AND IF THIS VERIFIES...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE CENTER MAY BE MEANDERING...OR REFORMING WITHIN THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS QUESTIONABLE WHETHER THIS TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO STEER THE CYCLONE NORTHEASTWARD OR EASTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL...GFDN...AND AVN MODELS. THE U.K. MET. OFFICE MODEL SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOTION...WHEREAS THE NOGAPS MODEL HAS BEEN TAKING IT GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDERNEATH A RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE DIVERSE OPTIONS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 25.5N 85.4W 30 KTS 12HR VT 13/0600Z 25.5N 85.5W 35 KTS 24HR VT 13/1800Z 26.2N 86.2W 40 KTS 36HR VT 14/0600Z 27.2N 86.1W 45 KTS 48HR VT 14/1800Z 27.9N 85.2W 50 KTS 72HR VT 15/1800Z 29.0N 83.0W 65 KTS NNNN