ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2001 MORNING VISUAL IMAGES SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION STILL LACK CURVATURE...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS QUITE BROAD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW STRONG WINDS...BUT 25 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MORE NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COMING TOWARD THE DEPRESSION...SO NOT MUCH STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. HOWEVER...THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN INDICATES DECREASING SHEAR OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE U.K. MET OFFICE MODEL ALSO SHOWS DEEPENING...BUT THIS MODEL MAY BE DEPICTING SOMETHING OTHER THAN A TRUE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING COMMENCING IN A DAY OR SO...AND IS JUST A LITTLE BELOW SHIPS. MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLOWLY WEST...BUT THE CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED. STEERING IS WEAK...AND THERE MAY BE SOME ERRATIC MOTION OR CENTER REFORMATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE AVN MODEL GRADUALLY DEVELOPS A POSITIVELY-TILTED 500 MB TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE COULD TURN THE CYCLONE EASTWARD...AND THIS IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. HOWEVER SOME OTHER GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE NOGAPS AND U.K. MET MODEL...ARE FARTHER TO THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/1500Z 25.7N 85.9W 25 KTS 12HR VT 13/0000Z 25.8N 86.4W 30 KTS 24HR VT 13/1200Z 26.5N 87.0W 35 KTS 36HR VT 14/0000Z 27.5N 86.5W 40 KTS 48HR VT 14/1200Z 28.0N 85.5W 45 KTS 72HR VT 15/1200Z 28.5N 83.5W 60 KTS NNNN