ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2001 SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. EAST GULF BUOY 42003 HAS A PRESSURE BELOW 1008 MB AND A 24-HR PRESSURE DROP OF MORE THAN 4 MB. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER DUE TO NORTHERLY SHEAR...BUT BANDED CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN THE EAST SEMICIRCLE ...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/05. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS WIDELY DIVERGENT AFTER 36 HOURS ON WHICH DIRECTION TO TAKE ERIN. NOGAPS TAKES ERIN WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO ...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER MODEL. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SHOULD LIFT OUT LATER TODAY AND POSSIBLY CAUSE ERIN TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. HOWEVER...BY 36 TO 48 HOURS...A SHORTAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS FOREACST TO DROP DOWN AND GRADUALLY PICK UP THE CYCLONE AND BEGIN MOVING IT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE UKMET-AVN CONSENSUS WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY AND THE OFFICIAL FORWCAST IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH 24 TO 36 HOURS DUE TO NORTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. HOWEVER... BY 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE WEAK AND MORE ANTICYCLONIC...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE THE SHEAR INCREASES AGAIN BY 72 HOURS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0900Z 25.7N 85.8W 25 KTS 12HR VT 12/1800Z 25.8N 86.2W 30 KTS 24HR VT 13/0600Z 26.4N 86.6W 30 KTS 36HR VT 13/1800Z 27.2N 86.7W 35 KTS 48HR VT 14/0600Z 28.0N 86.0W 45 KTS 72HR VT 15/0600Z 29.0N 84.0W 60 KTS NNNN