ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001 THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AS THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PROBLEMS WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE MOTION OR STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 250/4. A QUIKSCAT PASS THAT CAME IN MOMENTS AGO PLACES THE CENTER WITHIN ABOUT 20 MILES OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AND POORLY ORGANIZED...AND NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR COVERS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT STRENGTHENING FOR A WHILE...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN ABOUT 36 HOURS THE AVN SHOWS MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RELAXES. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO 72 KT IN 72 HOURS...AND THE GFDL TAKES THE SYSTEM UP TO NEAR 100 KT. THE UKMET...ON THE OTHER HAND...KEEPS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE UNTIL THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH KNOWS LITTLE ABOUT HOW POORLY ORGANIZED THE DEPRESSION IS. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY. STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK OVER THE EASTERN GULF FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...MOST GUIDANCE TAKES THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OR NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE OUTLIER IS THE GFDL...WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARD THE PANHANDLE ON DAY THREE. I SUSPECT THAT THIS MAY BE RELATED TO THE EXTREMELY RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE MODEL...AND THAT THE MODEL CYCLONE MAY BE HELPING TO DEVELOP A BIT OF A RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. FOR THE TIME BEING...THIS IS NOT CONSIDERED TO BE A LIKELY SCENARIO. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/0300Z 25.4N 84.6W 25 KTS 12HR VT 12/1200Z 25.3N 85.0W 30 KTS 24HR VT 13/0000Z 25.6N 85.4W 30 KTS 36HR VT 13/1200Z 26.2N 85.5W 35 KTS 48HR VT 14/0000Z 27.0N 85.5W 45 KTS 72HR VT 15/0000Z 28.5N 84.0W 55 KTS NNNN