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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001
 
THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...AS THERE HAVE BEEN SOME PROBLEMS
WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING...BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO
NOT INDICATE THAT THERE HAS BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
MOTION OR STRUCTURE OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 250/4.  A QUIKSCAT PASS THAT CAME IN MOMENTS AGO
PLACES THE CENTER WITHIN ABOUT 20 MILES OF THE ADVISORY POSITION.

CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED AND POORLY ORGANIZED...AND NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR COVERS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS SHOULD INHIBIT
STRENGTHENING FOR A WHILE...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE
CHANGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  IN ABOUT 36 HOURS THE AVN SHOWS MORE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RELAXES.
THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO 72 KT IN 72 HOURS...AND THE
GFDL TAKES THE SYSTEM UP TO NEAR 100 KT.  THE UKMET...ON THE OTHER
HAND...KEEPS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE UNTIL THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS 
AGGRESSIVE THAN SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL...WHICH KNOWS LITTLE 
ABOUT HOW POORLY ORGANIZED THE DEPRESSION IS.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY.  
STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RATHER WEAK OVER THE EASTERN
GULF FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER THAT...MOST GUIDANCE TAKES THE 
SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL OR NORTHERN FLORIDA.  THE 
OUTLIER IS THE GFDL...WHICH TURNS THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE NORTHWEST 
TOWARD THE PANHANDLE ON DAY THREE.  I SUSPECT THAT THIS MAY BE 
RELATED TO THE EXTREMELY RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN THE 
MODEL...AND THAT THE MODEL CYCLONE MAY BE HELPING TO DEVELOP A BIT 
OF A RIDGE TO ITS NORTH.  FOR THE TIME BEING...THIS IS NOT 
CONSIDERED TO BE A LIKELY SCENARIO.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0300Z 25.4N  84.6W    25 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 25.3N  85.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     13/0000Z 25.6N  85.4W    30 KTS
36HR VT     13/1200Z 26.2N  85.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     14/0000Z 27.0N  85.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     15/0000Z 28.5N  84.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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