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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2001
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD...BUT RATHER
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
A QUIK SCAT PASS INDICATED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 KT AND THE SHIP KAKF 
CONFIRMED 25 KNOTS AT ITS LOCATION WELL SOUTH OF THE CENTER...THUS 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT.  GUIDANCE MODELS INDICATE 
NO CHANCE OF REGENERATION AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTH...OR
180/02. A GENERAL SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE PRIMARY STEERING AT THE LOW
LEVELS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH DRIFT
FELIX TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A REMNANT LOW.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE/COBB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0300Z 34.5N  31.6W    25 KTS
12HR VT     19/1200Z 34.2N  31.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATED
24HR VT     20/0000Z 33.6N  31.6W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     20/1200Z 33.0N  32.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     21/0000Z 32.5N  32.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     22/0000Z 31.0N  33.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
  
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