ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 40 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2001 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT REMAINS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON NEARBY SHIP REPORTS INDICATING 25 KNOTS. THIS DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY BUOY 44765...WHICH IS NEAR THE CENTER OF FELIX AND HAS BEEN INDICATING A STEADY RISE IN PRESSURE. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST...OR 090/02. A GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SINCE FELIX IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...AND REMAINS EMBEDDED IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH DRIFT THE SYSTEM SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH. FELIX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS OVER COLD SSTS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL HAMPER THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. FORECASTER STEWART/HOLWEG FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 34.7N 31.6W 30 KTS...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 19/0600Z 34.5N 31.3W 25 KTS...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 19/1800Z 33.9N 31.4W 25 KTS...DISSIPATED 36HR VT 20/0600Z 33.4N 31.7W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 20/1800Z 32.9N 32.1W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 21/1800Z 32.0N 33.0W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW NNNN