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TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2001

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION... 
WHICH IS DEVOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS 
BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND 35 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THIS
INTENSITY IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY 1001.2 MB PRESSURE REPORT FROM 
BUOY 44765...WHICH HAS BEEN INDICATING A STEADY RISE IN PRESSURE.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SLOW DRIFT TO THE SOUTH...OR 190/02. 
A GENERAL SOUTHWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS SINCE 
FELIX HAS BECOME REMOVED FROM THE MID-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS.  
THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS...THE GFDL MODEL...
AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 

FELIX SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SINCE IT IS FORECAST TO TRACK OVER
ITS OWN COLD WAKE.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DRY 
AIR ENTRAINMENT IS OCCURRING...WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT THE 
REDEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. 

FORECASTER STEWART/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/1500Z 34.7N  32.1W    35 KTS...DISSIPATING
12HR VT     19/0000Z 34.3N  32.1W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     19/1200Z 33.6N  32.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     20/0000Z 32.8N  32.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATED
48HR VT     20/1200Z 32.3N  33.0W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     21/1200Z 31.5N  33.5W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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