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TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 18 2001

THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FELIX AT
THIS TIME.  UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLIES ARE DISPLACING WHAT APPEARS TO
BE MOSTLY HIGH CLOUD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB AND SAB.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS RE-TRACING ITS PREVIOUS
PATH...AND THUS MOVING OVER WATERS THAT HAVE PROBABLY BEEN COOLED
SIGNIFICANTLY BY UPWELLING.  THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED
WEAKENING...AND THEREFORE FELIX IS FORECAST TO DROP BELOW STORM
STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO.  BEYOND THAT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
MAINTAINS THE INTENSITY SINCE THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FELIX COULD
EVENTUALLY FIND SOME WARMER WATERS AND/OR A MORE HOSPITABLE
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...IF NOT SOONER.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DRIFT.  FELIX IS BEING STEERED
BY THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE CONSENSUS OF
THE GFDL...AVN...NOGAPS...AND U.K.  MET OFFICE GUIDANCE CALLS FOR
THE SLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72
HOURS OR SO.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0900Z 34.6N  32.2W    40 KTS
12HR VT     18/1800Z 34.3N  32.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     19/0600Z 33.8N  32.6W    30 KTS
36HR VT     19/1800Z 33.3N  32.7W    30 KTS
48HR VT     20/0600Z 33.0N  33.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     21/0600Z 32.5N  33.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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