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TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2001
 
FELIX IS A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO THE NORTHWEST
OF THE LIMITED CONVECTION AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST SSMI PASS AND
CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES. DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS.
 
FELIX HAS BEEN MOVING LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS OR MAY BE
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO STRENGTHENING
AND FAVORS A SLOW SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MOTION.  IN FACT...THE AVN AND
GFDL AS WELL AS THE REST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE BRING A WEAKENING
FELIX SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
STATE OF THE ART DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND MOVES FELIX VERY SLOWLY
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SO A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
INDICATED.  HOWEVER...IF FELIX SURVIVES AND MOVES FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
...IT MAY REACH A POOL OF ABOVE NORMAL SST AND SOME STRENGTHENING
MAY OCCUR.  NONE OF THE MODELS INDICATE INTENSIFICATION.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0300Z 34.8N  32.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     18/1200Z 34.5N  32.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     19/0000Z 34.0N  32.3W    35 KTS
36HR VT     19/1200Z 33.5N  32.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     20/0000Z 33.0N  33.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     21/0000Z 32.5N  33.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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