ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2001
 
FELIX HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY THE PAST 6 HOURS AND IS UNDER 
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.  HOWEVER...DURING 
THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING CLOSER TO 
THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND DEEPER CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED 
NEAR THE CENTER. OUTFLOW REMAINS FAIR TO THE NORTH.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/02...BASED PRIMARILY ON AN 
EXPECTED EASTWARD DRIFT TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.  THE NHC MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS NOW MUCH MORE WIDELY DIVERGENT. THE UKMET...AVN...AND 
GFDL MODELS TAKE FELIX SLOWLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER ITS 
PREVIOUS TRACK...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS VARY BETWEEN A 
SLOW NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
TRACK IS SLOWER AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK 
AND CLOSE TO THE VICBAR AND GFDN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS IS CONSISTENT 
WITH FELIX REMAINING A DEEPER CIRCULATION THAN THE UKMET...AVN...AND 
GFDL MODELS ARE FORECASTING.  THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO GET NUDGED 
SLOWLY EASTWARD BY THE LARGER-SCALE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN 
INDICATED IN THE 12Z U.S. UPPER-AIR DATA AND IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  
 
FELIX IS FORECAST TO ONLY WEAKEN SLOWLY SINCE THE WATER TEMPERATURES
BENEATH THE CYCLONE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 24-25C...WHICH IS
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MODERATE CONVECTION AS INDICATED 
BY THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SYSTEM CENTER. IT IS 
STILL POSSIBLE THAT FELIX COULD RE-STRENGTHEN BACK TO HURRICANE 
INTENSITY IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO IF THE CONVECTION WRAPS BACK 
AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.  HOWEVER...IF FELIX DOES 
NOT BEGIN TO MOVE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...OR IF IT MOVES BACK TO 
THE SOUTHWEST...THEN THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COLD UPWELLED 
WATER AND WOULD LIKELY DIE A QUICK DEATH.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/2100Z 35.1N  31.7W    55 KTS
12HR VT     18/0600Z 34.8N  30.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     18/1800Z 34.7N  29.3W    50 KTS
36HR VT     19/0600Z 34.8N  28.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     19/1800Z 34.8N  27.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     20/1800Z 34.5N  26.0W    40 KTS
 
 
NNNN