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TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2001
 
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...FELIX HAS SLOWED DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND 
HAS TURNED TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.  NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR 
HAS DISPLACED THE MODERATE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  THE WIND FIELD REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE...WHILE 
THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHRINK.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 120/03.  HOWEVER...A RETURN TO A MORE 
EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED AS THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS 
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND 
BEYOND.  THE NARROW RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AZORES THAT HAS BLOCKED 
THE FORWARD MOTION OF FELIX IS GRADUALLY SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD 
AND BECOMING MORE NARROW AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THIS 
SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FELIX TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD LATER TODAY.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS A 
BLEND BETWEEN THE NOGAPS...GFDN...AND UKMET MODELS...WHICH ARE MUCH 
SLOWER THAN THE AVN MODEL.

FELIX IS FORECAST TO ONLY WEAKEN SLOWLY SINCE THE WATER TEMPERATURES 
BENEATH THE SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 24-25C...WHICH IS 
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME MODERATE CONVECTION.  IF THE 
SHEAR WEAKENS ENOUGH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FELIX COULD 
RE-STRENGTHEN BACK TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IF CONVECTION WRAPS AROUND 
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/1500Z 34.9N  31.0W    60 KTS
12HR VT     18/0000Z 34.9N  30.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     18/1200Z 34.9N  29.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     19/0000Z 35.2N  28.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     19/1200Z 35.3N  26.4W    45 KTS
72HR VT     20/1200Z 35.0N  24.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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