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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2001
 
THE CYCLONE HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD SPEED TO 8 KNOTS OR LESS...AS A 
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BYPASSES THE AREA.  FELIX IS EMBEDDED IN A 
SUBTROPICAL LATITUDE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO 
FOR A WHILE.  NCEP GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE 
RIGHT AND FAIRLY SLOW MOTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THIS GUIDANCE.

DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED AT THIS TIME...AND SATELLITE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM MAY NO LONGER BE A 
HURRICANE.  MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH IS MAINTAINED ON THIS 
ADVISORY...AS EARLIER BUOY OBSERVATIONS IMPLIED THAT FELIX IS 
SOMEHWAT STRONGER THAN INDICATED BY THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  SINCE 
OCEAN WATERS ARE NOT VERY WARM...SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN 
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. 
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0900Z 35.5N  31.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     17/1800Z 36.2N  30.6W    60 KTS
24HR VT     18/0600Z 36.4N  29.4W    60 KTS
36HR VT     18/1800Z 36.5N  28.2W    55 KTS
48HR VT     19/0600Z 36.5N  27.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     20/0600Z 36.0N  24.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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