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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2001
 
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS LOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING FELIX...THERE 
IS RECENT SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTH OF THE 
CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BELOW HURRICANE 
STRENGTH...BUT SINCE DRIFTING BUOY DATA EARLIER SUGGESTED THAT 
DVORAK ESTIMATES WERE A LITTLE LO...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 65 
KNOTS.  ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/11.  THE AVIATION MODEL FORECASTS 
SLOWING DOWN AND A TURN TOWARD THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND IS A LITTLE TO THE 
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THIS SLIGHTLY INCREASES THE THREAT 
TO THE AZORES. 

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0300Z 35.5N  31.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     17/1200Z 36.5N  30.9W    60 KTS
24HR VT     18/0000Z 36.9N  30.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     18/1200Z 37.0N  29.3W    60 KTS
48HR VT     19/0000Z 37.0N  28.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     20/0000Z 36.5N  26.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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