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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2001
 
FELIX HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING SOME SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR DURING 
THE PAST 6 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE SHEAR MAY BE STARTING TO DECREASE 
AS INDICATED BY A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST 
QUADRANT. DRIFTING BUOY 44765 HAS BEEN IN THE EYE OF FELIX MOST OF 
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS REPORTED PRESSURES AS LOW AS 973.8 AT 
16/1100Z AND AS HIGH AS 976.0 MB AT 16/1500Z.  THE BUOY IS NOW 
OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL AND IS STILL REPORTING 980 TO 983 MB...SO THE 
PRESSURE IS ONLY INCREASED TO 979 MB AND THE INTENSITY IS DECREASED 
TO 75 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/15.  FELIX HAS MADE A JOG A 
LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT ESSENTIALLY THE CYCLONE 
REMAINS ON TRACK AND SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE 
NORTH-NORTHEAST IN ABOUT 12 HOURS AND THEN SLOW AND MOVE BACK TO THE 
NORTHEAST BY 24 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE GLOBAL 
MODELS THROUGH 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER...AFTER THAT THE MODELS DIVERGE 
SIGNIFICANTLY. THE UKMET MODEL TAKES FELIX RAPIDLY EASTWARD THROUGH 
THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS IN 48 TO 72 HOURS...WHILE THE AVN AND 
NOGAPS TAKE THE CYCLONE SLOWLY EASTWARD AND KEEP IT AT LEAST 100 NM 
SOUTH OF THE AZORES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE AVN-UKMET-NOGAPS ENSEMBLE 
AVERAGE.
 
SINCE FELIX REMAINS A RATHER LARGE CIRCULATION...IT WILL TAKE LONGER 
THAN NORMAL FOR THE CYCLONE TO SPIN DOWN.  WATER TEMPERATURES ARE 
AROUND 24C NEAR THE AZORES...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY SUGGEST RAPID 
WEAKENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALREADY 
RE-DEVELOPED OVER THESE RELATIVELY COOL WATERS...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING 
IS FORECAST.
 
IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE EFFECTS OF FELIX IN THE FORM OF LARGE
BATTERING WAVES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AZORES ISLANDS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/2100Z 34.7N  32.0W    75 KTS
12HR VT     17/0600Z 35.7N  30.9W    70 KTS
24HR VT     17/1800Z 36.4N  29.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     18/0600Z 37.0N  29.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     18/1800Z 37.2N  28.2W    60 KTS
72HR VT     19/1800Z 37.0N  26.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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