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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2001
 
WHILE THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DECREASED AND THE EYE HAS EXPANDED 
TO APPROXIMATELY 80 NM IN DIAMETER...A 16/0900Z PRESSURE REPORT OF 
981.4 MB FROM DRIFTING BUOY 44765 LOCATED ABOUT 60 NM NORTHEAST OF 
THE CENTER INDICATES THAT FELIX HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN INTENSITY.  A 
PRESSURE OF 977 MB AND MAXIMUM WINDS OF 80 KT ARE MAINTAINED IN THIS 
ADVISORY...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE OF 77 KT...CI4.5...FROM TAFB.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/15.  FELIX REMAINS ON TRACK AND SHOULD 
GRADUALLY MOVE MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND SLOW DOWN AS THE 
RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE AZORES BECOMES MORE MERIDIONAL AS FORECAST 
BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS CURRENTLY INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY.  BY 48 TO 72 HOURS...RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF FELIX 
IS EXPECTED TO TURN THE CYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE EAST...AND 
EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO 
THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS BETWEEN THE AVN AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS.

SINCE FELIX HAS SUCH A LARGE EYE AND LARGE OVERALL WIND FIELD...IT 
WILL TAKE LONGER THE AVERAGE FOR THE SYSTEM TO SPIN DOWN. AS 
SUCH...ONLY SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

IN 24 TO 36 HOURS...THE EFFECTS OF FELIX IN THE FORM OF LARGE 
BATTERING WAVES WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AZORES ISLANDS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 33.8N  32.7W    80 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 34.9N  31.0W    75 KTS
24HR VT     17/1200Z 36.0N  30.0W    70 KTS
36HR VT     18/0000Z 36.9N  29.0W    65 KTS
48HR VT     18/1200Z 37.2N  27.8W    60 KTS
72HR VT     19/1200Z 37.0N  26.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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