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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2001
 
FELIX'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME RATHER RAGGED-LOOKING...AND THE 
CENTRAL FEATURES HAVE DETERIORATED.  CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING 
AND CONVECTION HAS BEEN ERODED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AS 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPEARS TO BE IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM 
MOVES OVER MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND WITH SOME 
INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR LIKELY.  

THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED TO AROUND 13 KNOTS.  NOT MUCH CHANGE 
HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...ONLY A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN 48-72 HOURS.  THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION NEAR THE AZORES IS LIFTING OUT AND WEAKENING.  GLOBAL
MODELS BUILD A 500 MB RIDGE BEHIND GABRIELLE...WEAKENING THE
STEERING CURRENTS OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE FORWARD MOTION SHOULD SLOW
FURTHER DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...FELIX MAY BE DRIFTING A LITTLE SOUTH OF EAST.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0900Z 33.0N  34.2W    80 KTS
12HR VT     16/1800Z 34.0N  32.3W    75 KTS
24HR VT     17/0600Z 35.3N  30.6W    70 KTS
36HR VT     17/1800Z 36.0N  29.6W    65 KTS
48HR VT     18/0600Z 36.5N  28.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     19/0600Z 36.5N  26.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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