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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2001
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE 
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THERE IS THE APPEARANCE OF A WARM SPOT IN THE 
INFRARED SATELLITE DATA NEAR THE CENTER.  THIS SUGGESTS THAT LITTLE 
HAS CHANGED AND THE SYSTEM REMAINS A MATURE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL 
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 90 KT AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL 
REMAIN THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 075/13.  FELIX IS BEHAVING HIMSELF AND IS
PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE SAME.  THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER COLD LOW 
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 40N/30W.  NEAR THE BEGINNING OF DAY THREE THE 
COLD LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH WITH FELIX NOT FAR BEHIND. 
THE 72 HOUR FORECAST POSITION IS NEAR THE AZORES.  FELIX COULD STILL 
BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AT THAT TIME.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0900Z 31.6N  40.7W    90 KTS
12HR VT     15/1800Z 32.0N  38.4W    90 KTS
24HR VT     16/0600Z 32.7N  35.5W    85 KTS
36HR VT     16/1800Z 34.1N  32.9W    80 KTS
48HR VT     17/0600Z 36.0N  30.7W    75 KTS
72HR VT     18/0600Z 37.5N  29.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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