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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2001
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THERE IS THE APPEARANCE OF A WARM SPOT IN THE
INFRARED SATELLITE DATA NEAR THE CENTER. THIS SUGGESTS THAT LITTLE
HAS CHANGED AND THE SYSTEM REMAINS A MATURE HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 90 KT AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
REMAIN THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 075/13. FELIX IS BEHAVING HIMSELF AND IS
PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS THE SAME. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE UPPER COLD LOW
CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 40N/30W. NEAR THE BEGINNING OF DAY THREE THE
COLD LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH WITH FELIX NOT FAR BEHIND.
THE 72 HOUR FORECAST POSITION IS NEAR THE AZORES. FELIX COULD STILL
BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AT THAT TIME.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0900Z 31.6N 40.7W 90 KTS
12HR VT 15/1800Z 32.0N 38.4W 90 KTS
24HR VT 16/0600Z 32.7N 35.5W 85 KTS
36HR VT 16/1800Z 34.1N 32.9W 80 KTS
48HR VT 17/0600Z 36.0N 30.7W 75 KTS
72HR VT 18/0600Z 37.5N 29.0W 65 KTS
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