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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 90 KT...77
KT...AND 90 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN
AT 90 KT AND WILL BE HELD NEARLY CONSTANT FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.  
AFTER THAT...IT DROPS OFF AS WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE HURRICANE 
BECOME COLDER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 075/14.  FELIX HAS COMPLETED THE TURN TOWARD
THE EAST-NORTHEAST...IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE UPPER COLD LOW
CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/30W.  FELIX IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME SLOWING AND A LEFTWARD
TURN AROUND THE WEAKENING LOW IS LIKELY.  MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DONE 
VERY WELL WITH THE TRACK SO FAR.

THE 72 HOUR FORECAST POSITION IS NEAR THE AZORES.  FELIX COULD WELL
STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AT THAT TIME...UNLESS THE WESTERLY
SHEAR SOUTH OF THE UPPER COLD LOW IS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 31.4N  41.7W    90 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 31.8N  39.3W    90 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 32.3N  36.1W    85 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 33.2N  32.9W    80 KTS
48HR VT     17/0000Z 35.0N  30.8W    75 KTS
72HR VT     18/0000Z 36.6N  29.4W    65 KTS
 
 
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