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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 102 
KT...90 KT...AND 90 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE AND 
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT FELIX MAY BE IN THE 
PROCESS OF LOSING AN INNER EYEWALL.  THIS PROCESS GENERALLY IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING AND SO THE INTENSITY IS SET AT THE LOWER 
RANGE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES.  IF THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW ENOUGH... 
AND THE AVN SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY...SOME REINTENSIFICATION COULD 
STILL OCCUR IF THE OUTER EYEWALL/CONVECTIVE BAND ORGANIZES AND 
CONTRACTS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS HELD NEARLY CONSTANT FOR THE 
FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN DROPS OFF AS WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE 
HURRICANE FALL OFF.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/13.  FELIX IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST...AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE UPPER
COLD LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/30W.  FELIX IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME SLOWING AND A LEFTWARD
TURN AROUND THE WEAKENING LOW IS LIKELY.

THE 72 HOUR FORECAST POSITION IS NEAR THE AZORES.  FELIX COULD WELL
STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AT THAT TIME...UNLESS THE WESTERLY
SHEAR SOUTH OF THE UPPER COLD LOW IS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 31.2N  43.7W    90 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 32.1N  41.5W    90 KTS
24HR VT     15/1800Z 32.5N  38.2W    85 KTS
36HR VT     16/0600Z 32.7N  35.0W    80 KTS
48HR VT     16/1800Z 34.0N  32.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     17/1800Z 36.0N  30.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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