ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE 102
KT...90 KT...AND 90 KT...RESPECTIVELY. CONVENTIONAL VISIBLE AND
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT FELIX MAY BE IN THE
PROCESS OF LOSING AN INNER EYEWALL. THIS PROCESS GENERALLY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING AND SO THE INTENSITY IS SET AT THE LOWER
RANGE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES. IF THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW ENOUGH...
AND THE AVN SUGGESTS THAT IT MAY...SOME REINTENSIFICATION COULD
STILL OCCUR IF THE OUTER EYEWALL/CONVECTIVE BAND ORGANIZES AND
CONTRACTS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS HELD NEARLY CONSTANT FOR THE
FIRST 24 HOURS AND THEN DROPS OFF AS WATER TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
HURRICANE FALL OFF.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/13. FELIX IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST...AS IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE UPPER
COLD LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/30W. FELIX IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SOME SLOWING AND A LEFTWARD
TURN AROUND THE WEAKENING LOW IS LIKELY.
THE 72 HOUR FORECAST POSITION IS NEAR THE AZORES. FELIX COULD WELL
STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AT THAT TIME...UNLESS THE WESTERLY
SHEAR SOUTH OF THE UPPER COLD LOW IS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/2100Z 31.2N 43.7W 90 KTS
12HR VT 15/0600Z 32.1N 41.5W 90 KTS
24HR VT 15/1800Z 32.5N 38.2W 85 KTS
36HR VT 16/0600Z 32.7N 35.0W 80 KTS
48HR VT 16/1800Z 34.0N 32.0W 75 KTS
72HR VT 17/1800Z 36.0N 30.0W 65 KTS
NNNN
Problems?