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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001
 
THE EYE OF FELIX HAS DISAPPEARED ON IR IMAGERY AND IS NOT 
WELL-DEFINED IN THE VISIBLE EITHER.  IN ADDITION...SOUTHWESTERLY 
SHEAR IS NOW EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 90 TO 102 KT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS 
LOWERED TO 95 KT.  BECAUSE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE WARM THE WEAKENING 
TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/12.  THE MAIN STEERING INFLUENCE WILL BE 
THE LARGE UPPER COLD LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/30W.  FELIX IS EXPECTED 
TO ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT...SOME SLOWING AND A LEFTWARD TURN AROUND THE 
WEAKENING LOW IS LIKELY.

THE 72 HOUR FORECAST POSITION IS NEAR THE AZORES.  FELIX COULD WELL 
STILL BE A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM AT THAT TIME...UNLESS THE WESTERLY 
SHEAR SOUTH OF THE UPPER COLD LOW IS STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 30.5N  45.0W    95 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 31.4N  43.1W    90 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 32.0N  39.8W    85 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 32.6N  36.4W    85 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 34.0N  33.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     17/1200Z 36.0N  29.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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