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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2001
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS.  THE EYE REMAINS DISTINCT AND IS SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP
CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON A 5.5 DVORAK SATELLITE FROM TAFB.  FELIX IS
THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OR CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE OF THE 2001 SEASON.  INTENSITY
GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAXIMUM WIND SPEED
AND I AM GOING TO KEEP THE INTENSITY INVARIANT DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS.  AFTER THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COOLER WATER AND THE INTENSITY WILL DECREASE.  AT 72 HOURS THE 
SYSTEM WILL BE OVER 25 DEG C WATER TEMPERATURES AND WILL BEGIN THE 
TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL

FELIX HAS CONTINUED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THE INITIAL
MOTION IS NOW 050/12.  A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS THE HURRICANE BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
AVN AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

AT LONGER RANGES...WHILE APPROACHING THE AZORES...FELIX MAY SLOW
DOWN AS INTERACTS WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0300Z 28.6N  46.7W   100 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 29.7N  45.2W   100 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 30.9N  42.4W    95 KTS
36HR VT     15/1200Z 31.7N  39.4W    95 KTS
48HR VT     16/0000Z 32.9N  36.1W    90 KTS
72HR VT     17/0000Z 35.0N  30.0W    80 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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