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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2001
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THE EYE IS DISTINCT AND IS SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP
CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN 
INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS BASED ON A 5.5 DVORAK SATELLITE FROM TAFB. 
THIS MAKES FELIX THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OR CATEGORY THREE 
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE OF THE 2001 SEASON. 
UNANIMOUSLY...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE AVN... 
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY FELIX. IN ADDITION TO MODELS...BECAUSE THE 
WATER IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LOW AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 48 
HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS FELIX TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 
115 KNOTS.  
 
FELIX ALREADY BEGAN TO TURN AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT 11 KNOTS.  A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OR EVEN TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS THE
HURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE AVN AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE.

AT LONGER RANGES...WHILE APPROACHING THE AZORES...FELIX MAY SLOW 
DOWN AS INTERACTS WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM.   
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 27.5N  47.8W   100 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 29.1N  47.0W   110 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 30.5N  43.9W   115 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 31.5N  40.0W   110 KTS
48HR VT     15/1800Z 32.0N  36.5W   105 KTS
72HR VT     16/1800Z 34.5N  31.0W    90 KTS
 
 
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