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HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 13 2001
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THE EYE IS DISTINCT AND IS SURROUNDED BY VERY DEEP
CONVECTION WITH PLENTY OF CURVED BANDS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
INCREASED TO 100 KNOTS BASED ON A 5.5 DVORAK SATELLITE FROM TAFB.
THIS MAKES FELIX THE SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE OR CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE OF THE 2001 SEASON.
UNANIMOUSLY...ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE AVN...
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY FELIX. IN ADDITION TO MODELS...BECAUSE THE
WATER IS WARM AND THE SHEAR IS LOW AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS FELIX TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF
115 KNOTS.
FELIX ALREADY BEGAN TO TURN AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT 11 KNOTS. A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST OR EVEN TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST AS THE
HURRICANE BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE AVN AND IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE.
AT LONGER RANGES...WHILE APPROACHING THE AZORES...FELIX MAY SLOW
DOWN AS INTERACTS WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/2100Z 27.5N 47.8W 100 KTS
12HR VT 14/0600Z 29.1N 47.0W 110 KTS
24HR VT 14/1800Z 30.5N 43.9W 115 KTS
36HR VT 15/0600Z 31.5N 40.0W 110 KTS
48HR VT 15/1800Z 32.0N 36.5W 105 KTS
72HR VT 16/1800Z 34.5N 31.0W 90 KTS
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