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TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 12 2001
 
EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA SHOW 3/4 OF A CONVECTIVE RING AROUND THE
CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT FELIX MAY BE DEVELOPING AN EYEWALL.
VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BETTER ORGANIZED
BUT THERE IS NO EYE YET. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 60
KNOTS.  LATEST SHIPS MODEL IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL
WHICH MAKES FELIX AN INTENSE HURRICANE.  WITH THE APPROACHING MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY IMPROVE AND FELIX COULD
INTENSIFY MORE THAN INDICATED. BASED ON THIS...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BRINGING
FELIX TO 85 KNOTS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN.  FELIX CONTINUES
TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  FELIX IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
TRACK MODELS.  SOME LONG RANGE MODELS BRING FELIX NEAR THE AZORES
BEYOND 3 DAYS.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/2100Z 23.3N  49.0W    60 KTS
12HR VT     13/0600Z 24.6N  49.2W    70 KTS
24HR VT     13/1800Z 26.5N  48.5W    80 KTS
36HR VT     14/0600Z 28.5N  46.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     14/1800Z 30.0N  43.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     15/1800Z 31.5N  36.0W    85 KTS
 
 
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