ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2001
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW THAT FELIX HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION.
IN FACT...THERE IS EYE-LIKE FEATURE TRYING TO DEVELOP AND A WELL
DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. FOR A
CHANGE...SHIPS DOES NOT DEVELOP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS INTENSE AS
THE GFDL WHICH MAKES FELIX A 100-KNOT HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING WHILE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE
OCEAN IS WARM. HOWEVER...FELIX COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN INDICATED.
 
FELIX IS MOVING 350/7 AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.  THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THEN FELIX IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/1500Z 22.3N  48.9W    55 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z 23.2N  49.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 25.0N  49.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 27.0N  47.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     14/1200Z 28.7N  45.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     15/1200Z 30.0N  38.5W    70 KTS
 
 
NNNN