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TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2001
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING SHOW THAT FELIX HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN DEEP CONVECTION.
IN FACT...THERE IS EYE-LIKE FEATURE TRYING TO DEVELOP AND A WELL
DEFINED CURVED BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 55 KNOTS AT THIS TIME. FOR A
CHANGE...SHIPS DOES NOT DEVELOP THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AS INTENSE AS
THE GFDL WHICH MAKES FELIX A 100-KNOT HURRICANE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CALLS FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING WHILE SHEAR IS LOW AND THE
OCEAN IS WARM. HOWEVER...FELIX COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN INDICATED.
 
FELIX IS MOVING 350/7 AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.  THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THEN FELIX IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/1500Z 22.3N  48.9W    55 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z 23.2N  49.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 25.0N  49.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 27.0N  47.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     14/1200Z 28.7N  45.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     15/1200Z 30.0N  38.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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