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TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2001
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/09...THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL 500 MB FORECAST SHOWS
THE STORM MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AND TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN 48 HOURS.  THE TRACK
GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
THE DEEP CONVECTION AGAIN APPEARS TO BE DISPLACED NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS AGAIN KEPT AT 35
KNOTS.  STARTING WITH 24 KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR...THE SHIPS MODEL
FORECASTS MODEST STRENGTHENING TO 60 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  IN
CONTRAST...THE GFDL MODEL GOES TO 100 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.  THE UKMET
IS ALSO FORECASTING LOTS OF INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN SHIPS JUST IN CASE THE GFDL AND UKMET ARE 
RIGHT.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0900Z 21.5N  48.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     12/1800Z 22.9N  49.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     13/0600Z 24.6N  49.9W    50 KTS
36HR VT     13/1800Z 26.7N  49.9W    60 KTS
48HR VT     14/0600Z 28.5N  48.7W    65 KTS
72HR VT     15/0600Z 31.0N  44.0W    65 KTS
  
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