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TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001
 
WITH ONLY INFRARED IMAGES...IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHERE THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER IS.  USING DEAD RECKONING AND SOME GUIDANCE FROM
MICROWAVE DATA...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/09...THE SAME AS
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL 500 MB FORECAST SHOWS
THE STORM MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AND THEN BEGINNING TO RECURVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A
STATIONARY CUTOFF LOW IN THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC.  ALL GUIDANCE
AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
GUIDANCE.
 
THERE IS CURRENTLY A CDO-TYPE FEATURE FORMING AND THE FORECAST IS
FOR MODEST STRENGTHENING UNDER WHAT MAY BE SOME FAIRLY STRONG
SHEAR...15 TO 25 KNOTS DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS ACCORDING TO THE
SHIPS DIAGNOSIS OF THE AVIATION MODEL.  THE GFDL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH A FORECAST OF 100 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0300Z 20.7N  48.6W    35 KTS
12HR VT     12/1200Z 22.1N  49.2W    40 KTS
24HR VT     13/0000Z 23.8N  49.8W    50 KTS
36HR VT     13/1200Z 25.6N  50.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     14/0000Z 27.3N  49.4W    65 KTS
72HR VT     15/0000Z 30.0N  45.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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