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TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL
DISPLACED FROM THE MAIN CONVECTION BUT IN GENERAL...THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS IMPROVED.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 KNOTS.  FELIX
COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES OVER WARM WATER AND BEFORE THE
SHEAR INCREASES.  THIS IS SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS.

FELIX IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND THE 
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE 
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER... FELIX IS EXPECTED TO 
RECURVE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTWESTERLY FLOW INDUCED 
BY A LARGE LOW AND ERIN.  THIS IS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY MOST OF 
TRACK MODELS. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 19.6N  48.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 20.9N  49.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 22.5N  49.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 24.5N  50.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     13/1800Z 26.0N  50.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     14/1800Z 28.5N  48.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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