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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 11 2001
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS 
INDICATED BY SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES
AND A NEARBY BUOY REPORT INDICATING A PRESSURE OF 1003.9 MB.  
HOWEVER...DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM 
HAS WEAKENED THE CONVECTION...SO I HAVE OPTED TO HOLD THE INTENSITY 
JUST BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE UNTIL THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS 
CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE CENTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/10.  ALL OF THE MODELS NOW AT 
LEAST AGREE ON THE DEPRESSION SLOWING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE 
TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. 
THE ONLY OUTLIER IS THE AVN MODEL...WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM ALMOST 
DUE NORTH FROM ITS CURRENT POSITION.  THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE BASED 
ON THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH AND SO THAT AVN SOLUTION WAS 
DISCOUNTED.  THE GFDL MODEL AND ALL THREE BAM MODELS ARE IN CLOSE 
AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER AND SLOW DOWN THE FORWARD SPEED TO AROUND 
4 KT BY 72 HOURS.

ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF 
THE DEPRESSION CONTRACTS AND THE CENTER BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.
  
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0900Z 17.9N  48.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/1800Z 18.7N  49.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     12/0600Z 19.8N  50.7W    40 KTS
36HR VT     12/1800Z 21.0N  51.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     13/0600Z 22.3N  52.2W    50 KTS
72HR VT     14/0600Z 24.8N  52.8W    60 KTS
 
 
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