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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2001
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14 BASED ON THE PAST 24 HOURS OF
MOTION. THE 00Z AVIATION MODEL FORECASTS A STRONG RIDGE TO THE
NORTH...BUT WITH SOME WEAKENING IN 72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
TRACK ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH
A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED SLIGHTELY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION ON
INFRARED IMAGERY WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION NOT VERY WELL ORGANIZED.
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR NEARBY FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND STRENGTHENING
TO 70 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE MODEL.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0900Z 15.0N 31.7W 30 KTS
12HR VT 08/1800Z 15.7N 33.8W 35 KTS
24HR VT 09/0600Z 16.3N 36.6W 40 KTS
36HR VT 09/1800Z 16.7N 39.4W 50 KTS
48HR VT 10/0600Z 17.3N 42.3W 60 KTS
72HR VT 11/0600Z 18.5N 46.0W 70 KTS
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