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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2001

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN SHOWS A GOOD CONVECTIVE BANDING
PATTERN THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THE CONVECTION IS NOT CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM
SAB...AND A QUICKSCAT OVERPASS ALSO INDICATED ABOUT 30 KT.  THUS...
THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT.
 
THE CENTER IS BROAD...AND IT WAS EITHER FARTHER TO THE EAST OR
MOVING SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT.  THE INITIAL MOTION WILL
BE 280/15 ON THE ASSUMPTION IT WAS FARTHER EAST.  SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
DEPRESSION...WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION
AND SEPARATED FROM IT BY A NARROW RIDGE.  THIS SUGGESTS A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE SHORT TERM.  LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST
THAT LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD THAT STRONGER RIDGING WILL 
DEVELOP EAST OF THE CYCLONE AND CAUSE A NORTHWARD TURN.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOT FULLY FOLLOW THAT IDEA AT THIS TIME AS
SUCH TURNS WERE CONSISTENTLY OVERFORECAST IN ERIN.  INSTEAD...
THE TRACK WILL CALL FOR A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION
THROUGH 72 HR.
 
THE DEPRESSION SHOWS FAIR TO GOOD ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW...AND THERE
ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS THAT IT SHOULD NOT BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
IN 24 HR OR LESS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR JUST THAT.
LARGE SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT LATER IN THE PERIOD STRONG UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES COULD ENCROACH ON THE SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY IF IT
MOVES TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK.  THUS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR
SLOWER STRENGTHENING THAN THAT INDICATED IN THE SHIPS MODEL FOR
THAT TIME.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0300Z 14.7N  31.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     08/1200Z 15.1N  33.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     09/0000Z 15.6N  36.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     09/1200Z 16.0N  39.7W    55 KTS
48HR VT     10/0000Z 16.5N  42.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     11/0000Z 17.5N  46.0W    70 KTS
 
 
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