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TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  51
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001
 
ERIN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LOSE ORGANIZATION...WITH THE REMAINING
CONVECTION NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB IS STILL 65 KT WHICH ASSUMES A TROPICAL 
SYSTEM... WHICH IT IS NOT.  SAB HAS CLASSIFIED THE SYSTEM AS 
EXTRATROPICAL...WHICH I AGREE WITH.  THEREFORE...AT OOOOZ ERIN IS 
DOWNGRADED TO A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM AND IS DECLARED BECOMING 
EXTRATROPICAL AT 0300Z.  MPC WILL TAKE OVER THIS SYSTEM AND FUTURE 
ADVISORIES WILL APPEAR IN THEIR HIGH SEAS FORECAST. 
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 040/26 KT.  A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH WEST OF
ERIN SHOULD CAUSE IT TO CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 48.0N  51.9W    60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT     15/1200Z 51.9N  49.1W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     16/0000Z 57.4N  45.7W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     16/1200Z...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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