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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001

ERIN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY LOSE ORGANIZATION...WITH THE REMAINING
CONVECTION NOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL 65 KT...SO ERIN WILL REMAIN A HURRICANE
FOR ONE MORE PACKAGE.  THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN REVISED
DOWNWARD BASED ON A 988.2 MB OBSERVATION FROM BUOY 44625 NORTHWEST
OF THE CENTER AT 18Z.
 
A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH WEST OF ERIN SHOULD CAUSE IT TO
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT
12 HR.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING IT NEAR CAPE RACE IN ABOUT 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM WINDS ARE SPREADING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND
AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER PASSES.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/2100Z 45.6N  54.3W    65 KTS
12HR VT     15/0600Z 48.3N  51.2W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     15/1800Z 54.5N  46.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     16/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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