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HURRICANE ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001

THE EYE OF ERIN HAS DISAPPEARED AND THE CONVECTION IS NOW DISPLACED
NORTH OF THE CENTER...SIGNS THAT THE STORM IS STARTING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND 77 KT FROM
TAFB.  FURTHER WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR...WITH ERIN BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.
 
A STRONG DEEP LAYER TROUGH WEST OF ERIN SHOULD CAUSE IT TO 
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.  THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING IT NEAR CAPE RACE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 44.1N  55.9W    65 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 46.6N  53.2W    60 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     15/1200Z 51.0N  49.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     16/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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